Why Obama’s executive fiat on immigration might not really help Reid

Reid arrives in Las Vegas on Air Force One (R-J photo)

The hed on the online version of the Sunday follow-up story in the Las Vegas newspaper about Obama’s visit to Las Vegas to tout his executive order waiving the threat of deportation for millions in the country illegally read: “Obama’s Las Vegas trip helps Reid, too.” The hed and subhed in print read: “Obama’s visit start of 2016 campaign: Del Sol speech seen as boost to Reid’s hopes.”

I’m not sure the story itself ever really reaches that conclusion.

Harry Reid himself, when asked whether the announcement might aid his re-election effort, simply said, “We’ll see.”

The story says Reid won 90 percent of the minority Hispanic vote in 2010. How many more votes than that could he possibly get?

The better question may be: How many votes might the immigration ploy cost Reid?

There are no hard numbers I could find on how many black votes Reid got in 2010, but Democratic candidates often get close to 90 percent.

Illegal immigrants, mostly Hispanic, already make up 10 percent of Nevada’s workforce. What might that number climb to as millions as added to the workforce?

According the Economic Policy Institute, in the third quarter of 2014 the unemployment rate for Hispanics in Nevada was 6.8 percent. For blacks it was 16.8 percent and 7.2 percent for whites. Both of those were the highest in the nation, EPI said.

Could black and white employment levels be affected by competition from newly “legalized” workers?

2008 Commission on Civil Rights report found that young black workers are especially affected by legal and illegal immigration.

A summary of testimony by Dr. Gordon H. Hanson, professor of economics at the University of California, San Diego, concluded:

Dr. Hanson’s coauthored research suggested that a 10 percent immigrant-induced increase in the labor supply is associated with a 4 percent decrease in black wages, a 3.5 percent decrease in the black employment rate, and a 0.8 percent increase in the black incarceration rate. This correlation held true in both national and state-level data, according to Hanson. The same data source showed that the effect of immigration on white men also produced a 4.1 percent decrease in wages, but had much less effect on employment and incarceration rates. Thus, wages went down for the skill group generally, but black men lost proportionally more jobs and disproportionally increased in incarceration rates.

Dr. Hanson stated that the economic changes created by the large immigrant inflow from 1980 to 2000 (half of which he attributes to illegal immigration) resulted in a labor supply shock that increased the number of workers in the U.S. by 10 percent, with an increase in the number of high school dropouts in the population by over 20 percent. These adjustments account for about 40 percent of the overall 18 percent decline in black employment rates and 10 of the 20 percentage point increase in the incarceration rate of black high school dropouts over the same period. Dr. Hanson noted that this influx reduced the employment rate of low-skill black men by eight percentage points.

The commission report also noted in that same year the Coalition for the Future American Worker sponsored an ad campaign featuring Dr. Frank Morris, the former executive director of the Congressional Black Caucus Foundation, which says:

So, the question should not be whether this immigration ploy will help or hurt Reid, but whether it will hurt American citizens, black and white? And how will they react at the polls?

25 comments on “Why Obama’s executive fiat on immigration might not really help Reid

  1. Rincon says:

    I thought global warming taught you not to trust these scientists. How do we know this guy isn’t being paid to say what he says? Just like expert witnesses, you can buy any opinion you like.

  2. Rincon says:

    So there’s no way to find agreement. You trust your people and I trust mine. What a sad way to run a country.

  3. Athos says:

    Rinny, are you saying that you like the way Harry Greid ran the country? You actually want more of that?

  4. Rincon says:

    Heck no. My point is that if we all fail to critically examine our sources of information, then we’re subject to swallowing whatever propaganda comes our way, but only that propaganda that reinforces our current beliefs. In this kind of thinking, views harden and progress stops.

  5. Athos says:

    So, you trust Harry Greid?

  6. Rincon says:

    Heck no, but I also don’t trust Dr. Hanson until I find out more. Unless he has more credibility than our nation’s climatologists, consistency dictates that Conservatives shouldn’t trust him because he’s a scientist. You “know” how they lie just so they can grab more grant money.

  7. Athos says:

    On a different issue, did anyone else notice the irony in Pinocchio denouncing the “lawless acts” of the Ferguson looters, at a Chicago rally to promote his lawless immigration EO?

    Whew! You just can’t make this stuff up!

  8. Nyp says:

    About as lawless as when President Bush did the same thing.

  9. Athos says:

    And of course, Jorge’s actions excuse Pinocchio’s lawlessness. You guys have beat that horse to death, petey. And my memory seems to fail when President Bush did the same thing.

    Just exactly what comparable thing did Jorge do?

  10. Rincon says:

    Pointing out the similarity of Obama’s actions to those of “Jorge” does nothing to excuse Obama’s actions, but suggests that if one is to be condemned, so should the other. If you had failed to condemn Bush at the time of his alleged actions, then you would be guilty of inconsistency. To be consistent, the easy answer would be for you to agree that both deserve condemnation. To avoid that course would suggest partisanship on your part.

  11. Athos says:

    Your logic is skewed. And I would be glad to discuss the history of Jorge’s screw-ups, just as soon as we stop Pinocchio from flushing our freedoms down the toilet. Get it? Stop the immediate damage caused by this Marxist, anti-American first, THEN we can talk history.

    Your continued failure to address Pinocchio’s hypocrisy (and lawlessness ) by bringing up past Presidents’ offenses is insulting. Funny how you never bring up BJ’s screw ups.

    Seems like YOUR partisanship is on full display!

  12. nyp says:

    That’s because I don’t think any of President Clinton’s policies were screwed up.

  13. Winston Smith says:

    I’m shocked…shocked…

  14. Athos says:

    You must have loved his “make an intern comfortable” agenda. Not to mention his fringe church eradication plan!

  15. Steve says:

    President Clinton’s policies were all moderated by the Republican Congress of the time.

  16. Athos says:

    I don’t believe Newt had anything to do with a “stained blue dress” Steve;)

    And Waco was ’93. Prior to the Republican Miracle.

  17. Steve says:

    Missed my point, Athos.

  18. Rincon says:

    My defense of Obama is the same as a prison guard that might object to the beating of a prisoner. Obama has certainly made his share of mistakes and miscues, but I don’t believe it justifies criticizing him for every breath he takes nor calling him Pinocchio or piling on without sufficient evidence as appears to be the case with Benghazi.

    Case in point: “…did anyone else notice the irony in Pinocchio denouncing the “lawless acts” of the Ferguson looters, at a Chicago rally to promote his lawless immigration EO?” Comparing Obama to a bunch of looters is a bit much, especially when it appears that Obama has the power to do what he’s doing. You keep insisting that Obama’s some kind of criminal, routinely exceeding his powers by some huge margin, but so far, the courts don’t seem to agree with you, even though our judicial system is presently headed by a historically conservative Supreme Court.

    I often remain silent when I believe that your criticisms of the administration have merit, which they sometimes do. Perhaps I should express my agreement more often, but I find myself sometimes objecting to the viciousness of your attacks instead, even when the basic complaint has merit.

  19. Athos says:

    Sorry, Steve. I couldn’t help myself taking another poke at that lying POS that is lionized by the Democrat party. And NOTHING will erase the horror I felt the day Janet Reno’s thugs killed all those people in Waco, and paid ZERO price for their infamy.

    Rinny, the point I was trying to make was that Ø was calling for people to uphold the rule of law, at a rally where his Executive Order is going to serious challenge the Constitution (America’s Rule of Law). But hypocrisy is nothing new for Democrats, is it? Kind of like naming a bill “The Affordable Care Act”!

    As to the courts, who’s the current AG? And where’s all the transparency promised by Ø? And is it really true that we are too cowardly to punish Holder, or Ø, for cover ups because of their race? (and PLEASE don’t tell me you’ve never heard THAT before!)

    As to Benghazi, how long after the truth was known did our President insist the embassy attack was due to the spontaneous reaction to an internet video?

    The one thing that bothers me more than someone lying to my face, is the enablers that allow that lie to go unpunished. And our President is a liar. More so than most politicians.

    We need more Grubers. Tell us the truth and let us decide for ourselves, public servants.

  20. Steve says:

    If they truly wanted David Koresh all they had to do was arrest him in the town,,, he made regular trips to Waco for supplies and such.

  21. Rincon says:

    “As to Benghazi, how long after the truth was known did our President insist the embassy attack was due to the spontaneous reaction to an internet video?” Unless Obama felt strongly that the “truth” wasn’t going to get out, he would have to have been an idiot to stick with his original impression. I guess I would have to see some kind of time line to tell. Maybe he is.

    I think we can agree that Waco was badly handled. At the same time, when people keep large stores of firearms around, it isn’t unusual that someone ends up being shot. This was just on a grand scale. Was the cop in Ferguson like the ATF in Waco to you guys? Should he have walked away? Would the rest of the Branch Davidians have remained peaceful if Koresh was arrested in town? Should the ATF have executed the search warrant in some other way, or should they have decided to ignore it?

  22. Rincon says:

    Could any of the charges against Koresh been made to stick without the evidence which would have been unearthed by the search warrant? I’m not so sure there was an easy way to get justice in this case.

  23. Rincon says:

    Same baloney.

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