A poll of not-so-likely voters

The banner story in today’s newspaper reports that nonpartisan voters prefer the top Democratic presidential contenders over Donald Trump.

“The results of the poll, which surveyed 402 likely nonpartisan voters from Feb. 2-4, found that former Vice President Joe Biden, Sen. Bernie Sanders and Sen. Elizabeth Warren each have slight leads over Trump in hypothetical, head-to-head November matchups,”  the story says, noting that nonpartisans make up only about 22 percent of active registered voters.

Just how likely are they to vote? Well, not so likely after all.

The third paragraph from the end notes, “A staggering 40 percent of the respondents had not voted in any of the past four elections.”

What’s the margin of error?

4 comments on “A poll of not-so-likely voters

  1. Anonymous says:

    I hope you’re not suggesting Trump will actually bear the democratic candidate to in Nevada are you Thomas?

    I mean sure he could reverse every action he’s taken in the past I suppose (as he did with his laughable “I’m anti dump now so vote for me” flip flop) and pray that the visceral hatred he has built up for the last 3 years is forgotten, but is that really likely?

    And, hypothetically speaking, if he did actually reverse every single action he’s taken since he became this could Bryson nominal president, would that affect whether the right continues to support him? I mean, metaphorically speaks no, if he “shot” the republic can party on Main Street today, would they still support him?

  2. Anonymous says:

    This post was so mangled I just couldn’t leave it alone so this is how it was supposed to read:

    “I hope you’re not suggesting Trump will actually beat the democratic candidate in Nevada are you Thomas?

    I mean sure he could reverse every action he’s taken in the past I suppose (as he did with his laughable “I’m anti dump now so vote for me” flip flop) and pray that the visceral hatred he has built up for the last 3 years is forgotten, but is that really likely?

    And, hypothetically speaking, if he did actually reverse every single action he’s taken since he became this country’s nominal president, would that affect whether the right continues to support him? I mean, metaphorically speaking, if he “shot” the republican party on Main Street today, would they still support him?”

    I need a new typing machine.

  3. No, I doubt Trump will win blue Nevada. I just didn’t think a survey of people who aren’t likely to vote was very telling.

  4. Steve says:

    Seconded.
    I add, people who choose to avoid blind loyalty to any one party, who vote person over party, who actively choose to register non partisan will be less than forthcoming when approached with an effort to pigeonhole them into a predictable group.
    I have been non partisan since the first day I registered to vote on my 18th birthday. I continued NP when I registered to vote in Nevada. I haven’t missed a cycle. I refuse all polling attempts. I turn down efforts to get me to join any party.

    AVR at the DMV is registering NP’s fast. Mainly because people at the DMV can’t wait to escape. Most of them probably don’t even know they were registered to vote and likely will trash the registration cards they mail out. Moreover, this is a very transient metropolitan area, people move after 6 months. With two cycles of undeliverable cards, they will be removed from the rolls. This makes it even harder to gauge a growing number of people who don’t even know they are registered to vote and/or are sick of all the demands for blind loyalty to party over person.

    So far this cycle, I have been totally underwhelmed by any of the Presidential “candidates”. And yes, that includes the incumbent I did not vote for in 16.

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