Might Nevada’s electoral college votes swing the election?

Obviously, we can ignore the polls that show Hillary Clinton beating Donald Trump by 4 points in the popular vote, because that matters for naught. It is the electoral college count that matters.

You know the electoral college, the system set up to give smaller states like Nevada an outsized voice in the presidential election. In a proportionate system, Nevada would have only four votes, one for each member of the House of Representatives, which is divvied up by population. But Nevada gets two extra votes, one for each senator.

Similarly, instead of having only one vote, Wyoming, Montana, Alaska, the Dakotas and a couple of others get three.

How the swing states swing this time could make a huge difference on Tuesday.

Many have Nevada in the too-close-to-call category.

Such as Survey Monkey:

surveymonkey

 

And Real Clear Politics:

 

realclear

But The Wall Street Journal has Nevada leaning for Clinton:

Considering how the unions are pulling out all the stops by busing members to the polls and telling them how to vote, I suspect the WSJ is closer to being accurate. The paper has Clinton clearing the necessary 270 votes by more than 60.

That union ground game could also spell trouble for Joe Heck’s bid to replace Harry Reid in the Senate.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Advertisements

41 comments on “Might Nevada’s electoral college votes swing the election?

  1. nyp says:

    Uh, Jon Ralston already called it. It’s over in Nevada.

  2. Barbara says:

    I had always heard that the casinos bussed their workers to the polls and gave them ballots with how to vote, but did not know whether it was true or not. In 2012 I asked a person who works at the Excalibur in Housekeeping if this was true. She told me all the workers were handed “guides” already marked, were loaded on buses and taken to the voting places. She claimed a religious exemption from voting, so she was not required to go. I asked if her co-workers went and voted in accordance with the “guides”. She stated yes as far as they told her. She had been concerned that she would be fired. Her immediately supervisor told her to just go and vote and not make a big deal out of it. When she refused, she was sent to a supervisors office. She told the supervisor her religion did not participate in government activities and she did not want to vote. Her supervisor told her she would not have to, but not to talk about it with anyone else. She said the “guides” were all marked with Democrat office holders.

  3. nyp says:

    So you think that providing people with transportation to the polls and with providing them with voting guides?

    Boy, is that whack!

  4. No one said it was wrong. It is very effective when you have a captive crew.

  5. nyp says:

    So you think that it is wrong to provide people with transportation to the polls and with providing them with voting guides?

    Boy, is that whack!

  6. nyp says:

    Barbara seems to find it nefarious.
    So, for that matter, do you.

    Of course, it could well be that all those housekeepers and kitchen workers at Cardenas Market on Saturday night were “captive” forced to vote against their will.

  7. Ralston also said Tarkanian will lose to Rosen. Want to place a bet on that?

  8. Cardenas was early voting. Anyone could go there anytime.

  9. Of course, when you have them by the wallet, their hearts and minds and votes will follow.

  10. nyp says:

    I don’t know enough at the CD level to place a bet. State-wide, it looks like Harry has done it again.

  11. Frank Luntz seem to be saying Nevada is critical for Trump, but I don’t see anyway Trump can win Nevada, considering voter registration favors Dems and the unions are getting members to the polls.

    “RALEIGH, North Carolina — Veteran pollster Frank Luntz told Breitbart News on Monday afternoon before a Donald Trump rally at the J.S. Dorton arena that he thinks the election will come down to four states: Florida, North Carolina, Nevada, and New Hampshire.

    “Luntz told Breitbart News: “Those are states Trump can win and has to win.”

    “Breitbart News asked Luntz specifically about Nevada, where early voting results reportedly favor Democrats, and there are anecdotal reports of high Latino turnout. Is it possible for Trump to lose Nevada and pick up one or two blue states elsewhere?

    “’I don’t believe he will,’ Luntz said.”

    http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/11/07/frank-luntz-trump-must-win-florida-north-carolina-nevada-new-hampshire/

  12. As of Oct. 18, according to Sec of St, in CD Dems outnumber GOP by less than 10,000, but there are more than 100,000 independent and other parties.

  13. And you are probably right, Harry has done it again.

    So, why is driving people who are indebted to someone for their very jobs to the polls and giving them instructions on how to vote not bad, but spending your money to express your political opinion is nefarious?

  14. Nyp says:

    I don’t understand the comparison

    But I’ll gladly trade a ban on union political participation for really strict limits on campaign-related expenditures

  15. Barbara says:

    NYP – the fact that this lady thought she was going to be fired when she refused to go vote and was sent by her immediate supervisor to the departments head for refusing to vote makes it nefarious. The fact that she was even questioned by her employer about her vote and had to explain her decision not to vote makes it nefarious. In fact one might even consider it voter intimidation, but that would require a DOJ that was not corrupt.

  16. Nyp says:

    Assuming you believe an unsourced anecdote on the internet by an anonymous commentator

  17. Nyp says:

    Don’t get me wrong – it could well be that all those voters at Cardenas Market were all intimidated into voting against the man who promises to deport their friends and family members

  18. Steve says:

    Guess, in Nyp’s world, it would be peachy keen, fine and dandy, rainbows and sunshine if sample ballots came with pre-filled out “voting guides” of course all the boxes “suggested” would be Democrat.

  19. nyp says:

    I am really looking forward to the next 36 hours.

  20. deleted says:

    Yes, it is not only wrong, but reprehensible, for an employer to send their employees on buses with pre marked “guides” about who to vote for.

    Heinously wrong.

    Although, relying on anecdotal reports that it happened is….funny.

  21. The union deeds have been reported so many times by the newspaper over the years that it is no longer “news” here.

    And pay no attention to the fact the blog post links to a current AP account.

  22. Steve says:

    Nyp, world markets and investors are “banking” on Clinton because she is all for Wall Street!
    DOW up 371…nice for my accounts too.

  23. nyp says:

    What the hell is “People’s World”?

  24. Steve says:

    Hey Patrick, chairs were thrown! According to all the anecdotal reports….

    Love him or hate him, Ralston has been correct more than he has been wrong,,,except for flying chairs!

  25. Steve says:

    Who knows, nyp? You are the only one referring to it.
    Why don’t you tell all of us what it is?

  26. Steve says:

    Yeah, but “People’s World” doesn’t appear in that story either.

    Nyp appears to be laying bait. Or posting on the wrong blog!

  27. deleted says:

    You’ll note that I said it was reprehensible and heinous for employers, not for unions.

    There’s a big difference

  28. Steve says:

    My wife and don’t tell each other who to vote for.

    No one should tell anyone how they should vote.

    Everyone should be encouraged to vote, even if they play eanie meany miny moe picking boxes.

    No organization should ever tell their membership how to vote…only too vote.

    And read sources of their choice…never suggest the sources.

  29. Nyp says:

    This is going to be so great

  30. Steve says:

    Hillary, making America “grate” again!
    four years….

    Though I must admit, I like my investments better today then I did Friday.

  31. Steve says:

    See what I did there?

  32. Rincon says:

    Certainly it is ethical and legal for an employer to arrange transportation of employees to the polls. Providing a voting guide is protected by the Constitution as free speech. You think employers should not be allowed to express political opinions to their employees?

    Threatening to fire anyone for not voting is illegal as is spying on them as they vote, which I suspect would be highly difficult to accomplish. The employees are free to vote anonymously for whichever candidates they choose. Just what is the objection?

  33. Steve says:

    The objection is the check mark placed in “preferred” candidate boxes.

  34. deleted says:

    Rincon I have no objection to employers providing transportation, I have GIANT objections with employers that “suggest” that their employees vote in an way.

    This is a highly coercive type of practice that this country has seen throughout it’s history (company towns most relevantly) to the detriment of our system of government and to the individuals who are corrupted by the practice.

    Would you have a problem with employers telling an employee that if they don’t vote a certain way that they are fired? Cause, that’s what you are going to get if this is allowed, or God forbid approved of.

  35. Rincon says:

    Corporations routinely make political donations with stockholder money without informing the stockholders. That’s objectionable. Rich people spend billions pushing their agendas and influencing millions of voters, but they must keep their views secret from their employees? If there is no coercion, where is the harm? Should I be careful not to talk politics with my employees?

  36. Barbara says:

    Hey NYP – Still feeling great?

  37. deleted says:

    Discussing politics with your employees is up to you. Any implication though, that if they do not vote the way you want them to, would led to them not having their job, is corrupting and, in my opinion, wrong.

  38. Rincon says:

    Absolutely. That’s why we have secret ballots.

  39. […] they would Trump rail against wining three Electoral College votes from states like Wyoming, Montana and the Dakotas — one for each representative in Congress and […]

  40. […] small states get three Electoral College votes even though proportionally by population they would get only one. Thus, states like Wyoming, […]

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s