It’s all over but the crying, right?
Donald Trump snatched up at least 89 of the 95 Republican delegates up for grabs in his home state of New York Tuesday, though John Kasich did manage to stick a finger in his eye by winning the three delegates from Trump’s home borough, Manhattan.
Ted Cruz got blanked and faces bleak chances in other New England vicinity states next week — Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island. In fact, Cruz is mathematically now eliminated from any chance of winning the nomination on the first ballot.
Meanwhile, Trump has far more delegates than anyone else and is only 392 from the majority needed to win on the first ballot. But he does not have a majority of the delegates awarded so far. Uncommitted delegates and delegates committed to other candidates total 950, compared to Trump’s 845.
And while Trump continues to whine about the rigged delegate procedures that allow Cruz to take all the delegates in places like Wyoming and Colorado by actually, you know, showing up, it should be noted that the winner-take-all rules are benefiting Trump. In New York he gets 60 percent of the vote but at least 94 percent of the delegates. One person, one vote?
And if Trump doesn’t get to 1,237 by the convention, don’t forget how it turned out in the second Republican National Convention in 1860.
Looking at the states coming up, Indiana and California will be crucial to stopping Trump. Cruz has been in CA for months and has committed delegates and alternate delegates in each congressional district. Trump just named a state director last week. The candidate’s slate of delegates is due to be turned in by May 7th. Expect Trump to complain and whine when he loses most of the state/delegate count.
Indiana is harder to estimate. it has been hit hard by the loss of jobs from manufacturing. Trump did well in IL and MI which border IN. The other border state of OH went to Kasich. If Kasich stays in the race, he may tip the race to Trump.
If Trump wins the nomination, his high negatives coupled with his poor organization or lack thereof does not bode well for the general election even with a flawed candidate like Hillary. He will have to debate Hillary. I don’t think he can go mano y mano with anyone in a debate. He has no depth on policy. His economic plan of tariff’s and capital controls to get Mexico to pay for the wall would turn a likely recession into a depression. Think Hoover and his tariffs.
Interestingly, NY’s delegates are selected by the party bosses. Unlike CO or WY where the delegates are selected by a vote of the people, NY is the least “will of the people” state. Shouldn’t the media ask Trump if NY is corrupt and needs reforming?
Trump will perform well next Tuesday, but May and June bode well for Cruz. If Trump does not get to 1237, I do not believe he will be the nominee. Cruz will win, if not a the 2nd ballot, then on the 3rd. There will be no establishment candidate swoop in to take the nomination. I also think it is beginning to sink in to the Party that if they want to keep the Senate, Trump cannot be at the top of the ticket.
Points well taken.
agree that it will be Trump or Cruz
Rules? It seems like those in government like to cherry pick them.
Spot on as usual Barbara! (We can expect Trump to go back into “whining” mode when he learns that 54 of Pennsylvania’s 71 delegates are “unbound”…)
The arrogance in New York is breathtaking. Trump must play by the rules and how about a debate, without a debate he will not pull one vote from this house. I see him as cowardly and not a leader.